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文件名称：【Bernstein-2025研报】2025年第一季度住宿业关税导致的短暂停滞之后重回正轨.pdf
文件大小：846.94 KB
总页数：21 页
更新时间：2025-05-21
总字数：约8.23万字
文档摘要

19May2025

PriceTargetChange

GlobalHotelsLeisure

LodgingintheQuarter(1Q25):Backontheroadafteratariff-ic

mini-break

Whatdidwelearnthisquarter?Aroundandpostliberationday,therehavebeenpockets

RichardJ.Clarke,FCA

+442076766850ofdemandweakness:inboundintotheUShasfallen(Expedia:down7%)anddomestic

richard.clarke@demandhassoftened,pushingUSRevPARtoaroundflat.Thisisasizablereductionfrom

expectationsatthebeginningoftheyear.Chinaisalsorunningbelowbeginningofyear

NiallMitchelsonexpectationsonelevatedsupply.ThebetternewsisthatthosetravelersskippingtheUSare

+442076767144

niall.mitchelson@stilltraveling(AirbnbsaidCanadatoMexicoup27%)andoverallnon-US/Chinaperformance

looksrobust.Luxuryisexceedingexpectations(ParkHyattRevPARup13%inQ1)andthis

SabrinaBlanclooksthefirstdemanddownturnwherehigh-endholdsupvsthemarket.Forthosewithhigh

+33142134732USexposure,guidancehascomedownbutnotfaroffour/consensusrevisedexpectations

sabrina.blanc@

anddowngradeshavebeenminimal.Inthiscontextitmakessensethatthestockshave

largelyroundtripped:Hiltonfrom$247on1/1toalow