2010一Text3

1.InhisbookTheTippingPoint,MalcolmGladwellarguesthatsocialepidemicsaredriveninlargepartbytheactingofatinyminorityofspecial

individuals,oftencalledinfluentials,whoareunusuallyinformed,persuasive,orwell-connected.Theideaisintuitivelycompelling,butitdoesntexplain

howideasactuallyspread.

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2.Thesupposedimportanceofinfluentialsderivesfromaplausible-soundingbutlargelyuntestedtheorycalledthetwostepflowofcommunication:

Informationflowsfromthemediatotheinfluentialsandfromthemtoeveryoneelse.Marketershaveembracedthetwo-stepflowbecauseitsuggeststhat

iftheycanjustfindandinfluencetheinfluentials,thoseselectedpeoplewilldomostoftheworkforthem.Thetheoryalsoseemstoexplainthesudden

andunexpectedpopularityofcertainlooks,brands,orneighborhoods.Inmanysuchcases,acursorysearchforcausesfindsthatsomesmallgroupof

peoplewaswearing,promoting,ordevelopingwhateveritisbeforeanyoneelsepaidattention.Anecdotalevidenceofthiskindfitsnicelywiththeidea

thatonlycertainspecialpeoplecandrivetrends.Intheirrecentwork,however,someresearchershavecomeupwiththefindingthatinfluentialshavefar

lessimpactonsocialepidemicsthanisgenerallysupposed.Infact,theydontseemtoberequiredofall.

有影响力人推断的重要性来自于一个听起来似乎合理但基本上未经检验的理论，这个理论叫做“两级传播”：信息从媒体流向有影响力的人，再从这些人流向其他人。营销人员已经3.Theresearchersargumentstemsfromasimpleobservationaboutsocialinfluence:WiththeexceptionofafewcelebritieslikeOprahWinfrey---

whoseoutsizepresenceisprimarilyafunctionofmedia,notinterpersonalinfluence---eventhemostinfluentialmembersofapopulationsimplydont

interactwiththatmanyothers.Yetitispreciselythesenon-celebrityinfluentialswho,accordingtothetwo-step-flowtheory,aresupposedtodrivesocial

epidemicsbyinfluencingtheirfriendsandcolleaguesdirectly.Forasocialepidemict