Team#2400414 Page
ProblemChosen
B
2024HSB
MCM/ICM
SummarySheet
TeamControlNumber
MI2400414
ResearchonpowersupplydevelopmenttrendforecastbasedonLCOE
Summary
Duringthe14thFive-YearPlanperiod,itisexpectedthattheinstalledcapacityofphotovoltaicpowerinmycountrywillcontinuetoincreaseduetothereductionofgenerationcostsandthedevelopmentofpowermarkettransactions.ThispaperpresentsacomprehensivestudyonthefuturedevelopmentofphotovoltaicpowergenerationinChina.Itfocusesonfourmainaspects:thedevelopmenttrendofChinaspowersupplyfrom2024to2060,thefeasibilityofphotovoltaicpowerstationsinaspecificregion,thecalculationofthemaximumpowergenerationofphotovoltaicpowergeneration,andstrategicplanningforthesustainabledevelopmentofphotovoltaicpowergenerationinChina.
ForTask1,weconstructanindicatorsystemthataffectstheelectricitysupplyinChina.WebeginbycollectingdataonsolarPVpowergenerationinChinafrom2010to2024.ThecollectedquantitativedataundergoesdatacleaningbeforeconductingSpearmanrankcorrelationcoefficientandKendallrankcorrelationcoefficientanalysisbasedontheelectricitysupplyindicatorsystemshowninFig.4.TheanalysisrevealsthatElectricitySupplyhasacorrelationcoefficientgreaterthan0.9withInstalledCapacityandUnitInvestmentperInstalledCapacity,indicatingadirectimpactonChinaselectricitysupply.Thispaperutilizesthelevelizedcostofelectricity(LCOE)topredictthefuturetrendofelectricitysupply.Figure5illustratestheimpactoffittingthegrowthpathofsolarPVelectricitysupply.TheestimationforChinassolarelectricitysupplyin2060isover1,200megawatts.
Fortask2,analyzethefeasibilityoftheareaforbuildingphotovoltaicpowerplants.Basedonthelocationinformationprovidedabove,thelocationanddatadistributionofphotovoltaicpowerstations